“China is running out of garbage？”

Recently, the topic of “hungry incinerators” has gone viral. Reports suggest that waste-to-energy plants are scrambling for garbage—even going overseas in search of more.

What’s going on?

For a long time, many Chinese cities were plagued by the problem of “cities besieged by garbage.”

In 2005, a World Bank report stated bluntly at the outset:“No other country in the world has ever experienced such a large or fast-growing volume of solid waste as China is now facing.”

At the time, some even predicted, “China is going to be overwhelmed by garbage.”

So why have the nauseating, overwhelming garbage mountains from memory now disappeared?

“The rapid development of waste-to-energy incineration has played a crucial role in solving China’s long-standing garbage siege,” said Liu Jianguo, a professor at Tsinghua University’s School of Environment, in an interview with Sanlihe. “In terms of equipment, technology, and management, China’s waste incineration industry is at the forefront globally.”

The shift from landfilling to incineration has been a key strategy, with waste incineration plants serving as the core. As of October 2024, there were 1,010 incineration companies nationwide—almost half of the world’s total.

Hainan is the first province in China to achieve province-wide waste-to-energy incineration. A field study at a waste-to-energy plant in Sanya revealed a sealed garbage silo capable of storing 20,000 tons of waste.

One ton of garbage there can generate 340–350 kilowatt-hours of electricity—enough to meet the monthly electricity needs of one household. Put simply, the waste from five households can power another household for a month.

These clean and intelligent incineration plants have significantly boosted China’s garbage processing capacity. Stories of turning waste into energy and treasure are unfolding across the country.

According to the 2024 China Ecological and Environmental Status Bulletin released by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, preliminary data shows that in 2024, 262.37 million tons of urban domestic waste were collected nationwide, with a harmless treatment capacity of 1.1555 million tons per day, and a total harmless treatment volume of 261.99 million tons.

This has already surpassed the target outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan, which aimed for 800,000 tons of daily incineration capacity by the end of 2025.

However, behind the numbers lies another reality: China’s waste treatment capacity has now exceeded the volume of garbage being collected. Many waste incineration plants are underfed.

According to research institutions, the average load rate of Chinese waste incineration plants is only around 60%, meaning 40% of capacity is idle. Many plants have begun “competing for garbage,” with some even digging up decades-old landfill waste.

Analysis believes the oversupply of incineration plants has historical roots. In the past, local governments sought to resolve waste issues quickly and adopted mature commercial models—leading them to overbuild capacity beyond real demand.

In the short term, feeding these “hungry incinerators” still depends on increasing the available supply of burnable waste.

Analysis suggests incorporating previously unmanaged waste into the incineration stream—such as rural household waste, certain burnable industrial scraps, and organic solid waste.

Some companies are now looking abroad for waste. Leading enterprises have launched incineration projects overseas, not only in Southeast and Central Asia but also in developed countries such as the UK and France.

The disappearance of the garbage siege reflects the rise of China’s environmental protection industry. The transition from “underfed” incinerators to strong waste-processing output signals a leap in the industrialization of ecological civilization. And as incineration technology goes global, what’s being exported is not just equipment—but an entire industrial chain.

In the long run, even as a “garbage shortage” emerges, the momentum for environmental protection must not slacken. Only by emphasizing waste reduction at the source, deepening waste sorting, and promoting minimization, resource recovery, and recycling, can China stay firmly on the path to green development.